Two reports run on the same window and the same verification standard. The Weather Report covers hate narratives against protected groups. The Fault Line Report covers political polarization between camps. They share a week and nothing at the verdict layer.
Each edition stands on its own and is not revised once published. Where a later week corrects an earlier one, the correction is recorded on the reliability and corrections page rather than by editing the original.
| Week | Hate | Polarization |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-W38September 14 to 20, 2026 current | The Weather Report, September 14 to 20: No Script Reached the Top Tier, and Two Board Threads Called for ViolenceThis is the record for September 14 to 20, 2026, and it closes at about 19:00 UTC on September 20, when our last collection read ran. September 20 is a partial day, and reaction to the German state results after that hour is absent. The 1,034-account roster is the frame we track; what we collected is smaller: all 152 X timelines on the roster were requested and 137 of them returned posts inside the window, 6,972 posts in all; Bluesky gave 5,270 posts, 4,569 of them from 46 of the 52 feeds we follow and 701 from 545 other accounts that reached the record through reposts on those feeds and keyword search; and the two boards gave 1,286 opening posts, 908 from /pol/ and 378 from /g/. Off-roster finds sit on top of that collection and are opportunistic. Every finding below describes that monitored sample. Each migration event that anchors a script on this page fed a script we already track. Piddington, a village in Oxfordshire, held a symbolic vote against an asylum camp planned at Bicester, and within a day a sitting MP wrote of the women of Piddington and the third world wolves. On September 18 Spanish police fired warning shots into the air as they moved people from Ceuta’s beaches to a new port camp built for 1,700; Euronews reported thousands moved and France 24 hundreds, and by the next day Euronews counted more than 4,000 people at the camp and more than 2,000 back on the beaches. Reports dated September 18 put the number of people still in the enclave at 12,000 to 13,000: Reuters carried a Spanish government estimate of 12,000 and France 24 a local-authority figure of 13,000, out of more than 72,000 who entered at the end of July. On September 17 the European Parliament adopted a resolution that calls the arrivals there an invasion; the invasion frame is the largest script by reach in our monitored sample, and two Tommy Robinson captions, one over an Italian train and one about delivery riders, carry most of it. Sweden’s final count gave the center-left a narrow win, and within two days seven named accounts were reading it as an election decided by people outside the nation. Unauthorised patrols assaulted North African men in Rozzano, near Milan, and one account celebrated the patrols across three days, asked its audience to make the men famous, and on September 20 described a march through the town, with approval, as a hunt for North Africans. In London a by-election candidate of Somali descent was told that Somalia is her home, and in the United States one account put the jihadist label on Abdul El-Sayed five times in the week the Vice President told House Republicans to “just talk about Abdul El-Sayed”. A dispute over Robert Kraft and a concert tour drew the hidden-hand script about Jewish people from two political lanes. Attacks on Jewish people and a synagogue in Milan, Wuppertal and north London, reported in the days before Yom Kippur, drew no carriage we could code in our incomplete monitored sample. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern voted on September 20, and exit polls put the AfD first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on about 37 percent, one point ahead of the SPD, and Die Linke first in Berlin on about 24.5; in our monitored sample the result drew celebration and argument over the firewall from Naomi Seibt, Geert Wilders, Rupert Lowe and Tommy Robinson, which did not clear our harm bar, and two board threads on a Berlin candidate of Turkish descent, one of them confirmed. No script reached the top tier, and the ledger holds two explicit calls for violence, both board threads, one of them a stand-alone thread that sits outside the ranking. Every script carries the verdict no coordination identified, which means we found no bridge account, no named hub and no directive, and did not document independent origin either. Tiers rank scripts only, and stand-alone items sit outside the ranking with no score and no floor. The second call, a thread of September 20 calling for a purge of political opponents, sits inside the script that casts the political left as less than human. Our methodology gives the second-tier floor to a script whose harm potential reaches 5, which takes a concrete target with a place or a time and mobilization, or violence already carried out. Neither call for violence names a place or a time, so neither sets the floor. One script meets that anchor: the vigilante-celebration script, whose posts praise beatings already carried out in Rozzano, and its computed score of 3.5, the highest on the page, sits in the second tier on its own, so the floor changed nothing this week. Our collectors made their last successful read at 06:33 UTC on September 15 and their next at 22:55 UTC on September 19. X and Bluesky were read back afterwards, and our record holds no /pol/ thread created between about 06:29 UTC on September 15 and 09:11 UTC on September 19, a gap of about four days that cannot be refilled. The count of captured qualifying posts on the surfaces we monitor is a lower bound on what those surfaces carried. Impressions are platform counters read at capture time; they may rise later, and they are neither a count of unique people reached nor a lower bound on a script’s audience. The sample is purposive, off-roster finds are opportunistic, and no comparison with last week carries a directional reading. | The Fault Line Report, September 14 to 20: A Party Instruction, an Image Netflix Never Released, and a Venue BanWe scored 21 camp-versus-camp narratives across 14 fault lines for the window of September 14 to 20, 2026, which closes at about 19:00 UTC on September 20, with a median score of 3.6. Four sit at the top watch tier: the El-Sayed association frame, the reckless-war frame and the AI doomer-op frame at 4.4, and the China-psyop backlash frame at 4.1. Scores are published to one decimal. The four are listed by score for reference, and a gap of a tenth or two is inside the noise of five judged factors. The vice president’s recorded instruction to House Republicans to run against one Michigan Senate nominee everywhere, and the president’s posts calling AI fear a hoax and the data-center backlash a conspiracy, are the triggers behind three of the four. Eighteen verdicts came back mixed, two came back contradicted by our checks, and one reads core unsubstantiated by our checks; no frame was fully supported. A card reads mixed only where a check on its narrow reading found independent support, contradicted where a probative check on the claim’s core proposition failed, and core unsubstantiated where no probative check reaches that core proposition either way. Twenty-one checks on twelve cards are kept as context and carry no weight in a verdict. Two narratives read as ignited. One reached ignited for the first time on its chain this week, the Kraft billionaires-loyalty frame, ignited in its first window. One continues: the El-Sayed association frame, in its fourth ignited week. Six sit at near ignition: the Woke Right cabal frame, the China-psyop backlash frame, the British two-tier frame, the Clancy sympathy-as-endorsement frame, the Sánchez frame and the Kirk death-cult frame. Rulings dated September 20 shape those counts. A cleared item ignites a card only when it names the card’s trigger or the card’s target in its own words, and under that test the Clancy and Sánchez cards, ignited a week earlier, read near ignition on their markers, and the Kirk death-cult card holds at near ignition for a fourth week. The demonization-defense card, which carried the same claim as the El-Sayed association card on the same trigger with the same six carriers, is folded into it, so the week has 21 cards. No trajectory reading was applied to any card this week. Three measured readings met the standing test for an applied multiplier, the five-post floor in both windows on a card past its first appearance, and are published beside their scores as unapplied diagnostics, because our collectors read nothing between 06:33 UTC on September 15 and 22:55 UTC on September 19 and the window was read back from account timelines, so the two windows were collected differently. Every reach figure here is a floor. Nothing measured here cleared our harm bar, with one exception this week: items inside two narratives cleared the harm bar, were routed to the harm instrument, and are reported only there. What remains on these cards did not clear our harm gate. |
| 2026-W37September 7 to 13, 2026 | The Weather Report, September 7 to 13: No Top-Tier Script, and Remigration Reaches a State Party ProgramWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026; the collected record runs through Saturday, September 12, a partial day, and September 13 is not in it. The roster is the frame we track; what we collected is smaller: 111 of the 152 X handles on the roster reached, 1,650 opening posts from the boards, and 4,916 Bluesky posts. 367 items crossed our line. 340 of them run 47 distinct scripts and 27 stand alone. No script reached the top tier. The peak in our monitored sample is the replacement-and-remigration script at 3.95: native populations in Britain, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Germany replaced by design, with mass removal as the only answer, sixteen posts across three wings. The AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt election program provides, in CNN’s account of it, for “the return of non-ethnic-German citizens to their country of origin”, a policy the program calls remigration, and its lead candidate restated the aim at a press conference, so the removal remedy is carried this week by a state party that has just taken 44 percent of the vote in the September 6 state election, three seats short of a majority as the news record carries the result; Tommy Robinson’s remigration-or-war line on the day of the Tamworth march is the week’s one named-carrier call for violence, at 413,937 impressions, and it sets the harm floor the script clears on its own computed score; RadioGenoa’s replacement captions run over London, Naples, Genoa and Lisbon footage. Two events drove most of the rest. The 25th anniversary of 9/11 turned four scripts on Muslim people and on the two Muslim officials named over the ceremony clip: a disloyalty script at fourteen items, an eliminationist script at twenty, a collective-guilt script at eight, and a Jewish-authorship claim on the dancing-Israelis canard that carries named accounts for the first time. The Saxony-Anhalt aftermath, with Chancellor Merz’s ethnic-cleansing charge inverted onto migration by Naomi Seibt and Eva Vlaardingerbroek, fed the peak script and half of the week’s news table. The Clancy juror interviews on September 8 kept two scripts about women alive at lower volume, the collective-guilt chain we have carded since the trial opened, now down a tier, and the civic-exclusion script on Myron Gaines and two board threads. Three sitting legislators carry scripts in their own voices: Rupert Lowe on the Portsmouth invaders, Lee Anderson on the invasion and barbarian scripts, and Geert Wilders, whose Islam kills post at 3.9 million is the largest single reach on the ledger. Every one of the 47 coordination verdicts is organic parallel. Seven cross-carrier convergence signals are on the record, named in the scripts’ coordination notes; six lift a coordination factor to 2 and one raises nothing, and none carries the bridge, hub or arrangement a verdict requires. On Bluesky, two items came from 4,916 posts, both on one script that reads reported antisemitism as staged. | The Fault Line Report, September 7 to 13: Six Narratives Ignited in an Anniversary WeekWe scored 23 camp-versus-camp narratives across 15 fault lines for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. Three sit at the top watch tier, two of them tied at 4.37: the two Michigan Senate frames that carried the 9/11 anniversary, with the reckless-war frame behind them. None was fully supported by our checks: five failed at least one check outright and eighteen split. Six narratives read as ignited: four reached ignited for the first time on their chains this week, the demonization-defense frame and the Sánchez frame, whose lineages crossed this week, the Mamdani ceremony-clip frame, ignited in its first window, and the Netflix neck-injury frame, ignited on a single cleared post; two continue, the El-Sayed association frame in its third ignited week and the Clancy sympathy-as-endorsement frame in its second. The anniversary and the Clancy juror interviews handed the harm-clearing items to the other instrument. The trajectory instrument applied one reading, which moved a tier, and held four under its floor. Everything measured here is protected political speech, with one exception this week: items inside six narratives cleared the harm bar, were routed to the harm instrument, and are reported only there. What remains on these cards did not clear our harm gate. |
| 2026-W36August 31 to September 6, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 31 to September 6: No Top-Tier Script, and the Invasion Frame Reaches a Conference StageWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The roster is the frame we track; what we collected is smaller: 117 of the 152 X handles on the roster reached, 1,568 opening posts from the boards, and 4,910 Bluesky posts. 314 items crossed our line. 289 of them run 38 distinct scripts and 25 stand alone. No script reached the top tier. The peak is the invasion frame at 3.95: migrants at Ceuta, in the Channel and inside Western cities as an army to be repelled, sixteen items whose carriers sit on different rungs. Paul Golding carries the violence, one post at calling for violence, which sets the harm floor the script clears on its own computed score; RadioGenoa carries the exclusionary predicate in its religious telling, Muslim and Islamic invaders; and a sitting MP and, from the Reform UK conference stage, Nigel Farage carry the secular invasion metaphor with no trait predicate and no violence predicate, the MP at stigmatizing on an exclusion clause and the party leader at biased. The Clancy mistrial on September 4, an 11 to 1 deadlock with the defense naming the lone male holdout, drove two scripts about women: the collective-guilt script we have carded since the trial opened, now carrying an extermination call on a board opening post, and a civic-exclusion script that moved from the jury’s legitimacy to the franchise itself across Matt Walsh, Myron Gaines, Jack Posobiec and five board threads. The anti-Indian script picked up named carriers on X for the first time, seven accounts including Auron MacIntyre, Jayda Fransen and Calvin Robinson, while its board wing ran three extermination calls in the week a board thread reassigned the Sheffield newborn killing to Indian Hindu suspects. Every one of the 38 coordination verdicts is organic parallel; three convergences are on the record, none with a bridge. On Bluesky, four items came from 4,910 posts, one of them a threat framed as a prediction against the governing camp, coded under the same standard we apply in the other direction. | The Fault Line Report, August 31 to September 6: The Trajectory Instrument Moves Its First TiersWe scored 18 camp-versus-camp narratives across 13 fault lines for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. Eight sit at the top watch tier, three of them lifted there by the trajectory instrument’s first applied readings, while the same rule dropped one card to the bottom tier. None was fully supported by our checks: three failed at least one check outright and fifteen split. Two narratives stayed ignited as the Michigan Senate fight and the Clancy mistrial ran, with their harm-clearing items handed to the other instrument. Everything measured here is protected political speech, with one exception this week: items inside two narratives cleared the harm bar, were routed to the harm instrument, and are reported only there. What remains on these cards did not clear our harm gate. |
| 2026-W35August 24 to 30, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 24 to 30: The Record's First Top-Tier Script, With Its Organizing Hub NamedWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 24 to 30, 2026, reaching 97 of the 152 X handles on the roster. 291 items crossed our line, double last week’s count. 255 of them run 39 distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. For the first time in this record a script reached the top tier: the replacement premise and its remigration remedy, fifteen items scoring 4.03, one claim-script carried by two separate sets with no evidenced operational link between them, anonymous board threads and named accounts around the Save Europe Act European Citizens’ Initiative, in the week the European Commission refused to register that initiative and its organizers pivoted to court threats and a million-signature push. That script continues a chain we have carded since the Channel-invasion ruling three weeks back, and it is the first chain in the record to pick up a documented coordination verdict mid-life. The week’s center of gravity is Ceuta, where, per the Financial Times reporting our trigger scan records, mobs attacked migrant encampments on successive nights: three separate scripts work the aftermath, one celebrating the violence as homeland defense, one casting the arrivals as a rape and crime menace, one recasting the landings as conquest. The same reporting describes attacks organized over WhatsApp; the accounts applauding online show no documented link to the mob or to each other. Reform UK’s leader posted that young males without identity documents who come from “dangerous cultures” should not be free to walk the streets of Essex towns, and a sitting MP of his party echoed the line days later against undocumented young men from “backward cultures” roaming streets and parks, the week’s second documented coordination signal. And on Bluesky, an account called for lethal military force against AfD supporters; we coded it under the same standard we apply in the other direction. | The Fault Line Report, August 24 to 30: Five Narratives Contradicted, and the Record's First CrossingsWe scored 13 camp-versus-camp narratives across 9 fault lines for the week of August 24 to 30, 2026. None was fully supported by our checks: five failed at least one check outright and eight split. Two narratives recorded this instrument’s first crossings into the harm instrument, and the trajectory instrument produced its first measurements, held unapplied at low confidence. Everything measured here is protected political speech, with one exception this week: items inside two narratives cleared the harm bar, were routed to the harm instrument, and are reported only there. What remains on these cards did not clear our harm gate. |
| 2026-W34August 17 to 23, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 17 to 23: Five Scripts Reached the Second Tier, Four Calling for Removal or DeathWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 17 to 23, 2026, reaching 137 of the 152 X handles on the roster. 143 items crossed our line. Ninety-five of them run seventeen distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. Five scripts reached the second tier this week, and four of the five called for a group to be removed, expelled, or killed. The most severe came from a sitting official rather than a fringe account: Israel’s national security minister set a nightly kill quota for Gaza beyond anyone posing a threat and praised a newly built execution facility for Palestinian prisoners, the highest-scoring script on the board at 3.79. A sitting British politician promised an asylum seeker execution without trial; a high-reach account called for Muslim people to be rounded up and deported as an invasive species; and anonymous board threads told readers they could legally kill or maim Indian and Hindu men. Not one of the seventeen showed documented coordination: each was either a single account posting repeatedly or independent accounts converging on the same claim, with no organizing hub we could establish. The longest-running script needed no event at all, casting Jewish people as a single hidden actor whose will explains unrelated outcomes, twenty-six items across three platforms and the longest continuous chain in the record. | The Fault Line Report, August 17 to 23: Our Checks Contradicted Four Narratives, and None Held Up CleanWe scored 11 camp-versus-camp narratives across 10 fault lines for the week of August 17 to 23, 2026. Our checks contradicted four of them against their own claims and left the other seven mixed; not one came back clean this week. Officials or major outlets carried three of the eleven at the top elite anchor. Three narratives persisted from last week under ruled joins. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W33August 10 to 16, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 10 to 16: The Only Overtly Coordinated Script Was Announced Party PolicyWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 10 to 16, 2026, reaching 127 of the 152 X handles on the roster. 139 items crossed our line. Seventy-three of them run ten distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. A single commentator ran a ten-item campaign labeling Muslim Democratic officials jihadists, and a sitting president amplified the framing on his own platform on Friday. This was the week of the Clacton by-election, and the vote left a narrow mark on the record: it fed exactly one script we carded, Reform UK’s own announced policy of denying welfare and social housing to foreign nationals, carried by the party’s leader and a senior party official in by-election week. That script is also the only one of the ten where coordination is overt, because a party announcing its own policy is its own organizing hub. The largest script needed no event at all, for the third straight week: Jewish people cast as a single hidden actor whose will explains unrelated outcomes, twenty-nine items on three platforms, running well above last week’s volume on a wider footprint. | The Fault Line Report, August 10 to 16: Our Checks Contradicted Three Narratives and Supported OneWe scored 8 camp-versus-camp narratives across 7 fault lines for the week of August 10 to 16, 2026. Our checks contradicted three of them against their own claims and supported one: every check we attached to House leadership’s framing of the war authorization resolved in its favor. Officials or major outlets carried all eight. The Clacton by-election produced coverage but no camp-versus-camp narrative in our collection. Two narratives persisted from last week under ruled joins, a first for this instrument. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W32August 3 to 9, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 3 to 9: A Week of Border News, and the Biggest Script Ran Without ItWe checked all 1,034 tracked accounts, the anonymous boards we monitor, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 3 to 9, 2026. 114 items crossed our line. Sixty-two of them run ten distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. The window carried real border news, Italy’s new air and sea checks on travel from Spain and an EU push for migrant return hubs in Africa, and one of the 21 trigger events we scanned connects to a script we carded: Nigel Farage’s naval proposal, whose invasion framing began in his own posts two days before its formal launch. The largest script needs no event at all: Jewish people cast as a single actor controlling institutions and outcomes, nineteen items across three platforms. We could not document an organizing link inside any of the ten scripts. That is a limit on what we can show. It says nothing about whether anyone organized them. | The Fault Line Report, August 3 to 9: Our Checks Contradicted Two Narratives, Both at Official TierWe scored 14 camp-versus-camp narratives across 13 fault lines for the week of August 3 to 9, 2026. Our checks contradicted two of them against their own claims: a Senate party organ’s framing of the Democratic Party as intending a Marxist system, and the administration’s claim that China is fueling data-center opposition. Officials or major outlets carried five of the fourteen. One narrative is locked onto its mirror, and four of the fourteen ran inside the political right rather than across the aisle. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W31July 27 to August 2, 2026 | The Weather Report, July 27 to August 2: One Crossing, and Jewish People Cast as a Single ActorWe checked all 1,034 tracked accounts for the week of July 27 to August 2, 2026. 129 items crossed our line across twelve arenas. Seventy-seven of them run six distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. Forty-three of those items respond to a single event, the July 31 mass crossing into Spain's Ceuta enclave. A second script runs on no event at all: Jewish people addressed as one group acting in concert, applied to whatever subject was at hand. In one script we could document the organizing: a funder we could identify, and speakers who shared a stage. In the other five we found accounts converging on the same framing, and we could not establish an organizing link between those accounts. That is a limit on what we can show. It says nothing about whether anyone organized them. | The Fault Line Report, July 27 to August 2: Six Narratives Locked Onto Their MirrorWe scored 27 camp-versus-camp narratives across 10 fault lines for the week of July 27 to August 2, 2026. Six of them are locked, which is the condition where each camp runs the other camp's narrative as its own primary evidence. Officials or major outlets carried ten. Our checks supported two narratives, contradicted one, and could not resolve the remaining twenty-four either way. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W30July 20 to 26, 2026 | The Weather Report, July 20 to 26: One of Sixteen Scripts Shows CoordinationWe checked all 1,034 tracked accounts for the week of July 20 to 26, 2026. Ninety-five items crossed our line, running sixteen distinct scripts across five countries, 50 of them in the United States and 19 in the United Kingdom. One script shows coordination we could document. The other fifteen moved without coordination we could document. | The Fault Line Report, July 20 to 26: Fifteen of Sixteen Narratives Came Back MixedWe scored sixteen camp-versus-camp narratives across eight fault lines for the week of July 20 to 26, 2026. Officials or major outlets carried seven of them. Our checks resolved one narrative against its own claim and left fifteen mixed, which is the most useful thing we can report about the week. Four of the five most charged were carried at official or major-outlet tier; a culture-war casting fight carried the fifth. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W29July 14 to 20, 2026 | The Weather Report: The Most Severe Rhetoric Came From Sitting OfficialsWe checked all 925 tracked accounts for the week of July 14 to 20, 2026. Twelve items crossed our line, running eight distinct scripts, and the two most severe came from sitting federal and state officials speaking on the record. Eight of the twelve target protected groups, and the other four run dehumanizing or eliminationist framing at political opponents, which we score under a separate extremism track. | The Fault Line Report: Our Checks Contradicted Three of the Five Most Charged NarrativesThe first edition of our polarization monitor, a companion to the weekly hate report. We scored fifteen camp-versus-camp narratives across nine fault lines for the week of July 14 to 20, 2026. Officials carried four of the five most charged, our own checks are part of the record, and everything measured here is protected political speech. |